AGOA Expiry Tests Kenya’s Global Trade Strategy Amid US Protectionism

Kenya is facing a defining moment in its trade relations with the United States as the expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) looms, exposing its exports to new tariffs under Washington’s shifting trade policy. The developments are forcing Nairobi to rethink its reliance on unilateral trade preferences and explore reciprocal agreements that could reshape its long-term economic strategy.

Agoa, which has been a cornerstone of Kenya’s export growth for two decades, granted duty-free access for products ranging from textiles to macadamia nuts, supporting thousands of manufacturing jobs and diversifying the country’s trade portfolio. With its expiry in September, Kenya’s exports now face a 10 percent levy under tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration on August 1.

The new measures, introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), were justified by Washington as necessary for reciprocity but have rattled African exporters.

While the US has since struck trade deals with the EU, UK, and Japan, Kenya remains among the countries still exposed to the new regime. Trade Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui, who met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last week, emphasized Kenya’s commitment to securing a long-term pact to safeguard market access and stabilize investor confidence. Earlier this year, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi also led talks with Washington, underscoring Nairobi’s diplomatic push to anchor its trade future beyond Agoa.

Analysts argue that the expiry of Agoa presents both risks and opportunities. On one hand, the loss of preferential access threatens to erode Kenya’s competitiveness in the US market and undermine critical export-driven sectors. On the other, negotiating a reciprocal agreement could open new avenues for trade and investment, positioning Kenya as a model for other African economies navigating a more protectionist global environment.

However, experts caution that Nairobi may have to make concessions to Washington, particularly by opening its domestic markets in exchange for access to the US. Such shifts could have long-term implications for Kenya’s industrial base and regulatory autonomy.

The outcome of the negotiations will not only determine the fate of Kenya’s exporters but could also establish a precedent for how African economies recalibrate their trade strategies in an era of waning unilateral preferences. For Kenya, the expiry of Agoa is less about the end of an era and more about the beginning of a new chapter, one that will test its ability to balance national interests with the demands of a changing global trade order.