Because it overwhelmingly supported opposition leader Raila Odinga in the most recent presidential election, Kenya’s Lower Eastern area, also known as Ukambani, is regarded as an opposition political bastion.
The Wiper Democratic Movement, one of the main coalition allies in Mr. Odinga’s Azimio alliance, is home to the majority of members of parliament who represent those constituencies. Although there were no significant incidents recorded in any of its metropolitan centers in March when street protests shut down Nairobi and some towns in western Kenya, the area has not been enthusiastic about the opposition’s most recent mass action program to demand lower living costs and electoral justice.
The leader of the Wiper party and former vice president Kalonzo Musyoka challenged his supporters to be as forceful in their political expression as their counterparts from western Kenya. Musyoka is considering a run for the presidency in 2027 with the support of Odinga. Using the term “Luo affair” to refer to Odinga’s ethnic group, politicians in the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition have sought to downplay the size of the protests.
After Mr. Odinga and President William Ruto declared a truce and committed to parliamentary bipartisan deliberations, the weekly opposition marches were suspended in early April. The 14-member task group convened this week to establish the conditions of engagement following days of acrimonious discussions about its makeup, the topics out for negotiation, and opposing walkout threats that nearly put an end to the negotiations before they ever got started.
Areas like Ukambani are beginning to emerge as battlegrounds in Kenya’s most recent post-election political showdown as the opposition leader is adamant that their mass action will resume regardless after the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the government seems uneasy about the possibility of the protests spreading.
The President visited Machakos, one of the three counties in the area, twice in three days over the weekend, pleading with the locals to refrain from participating in the Azimio protests and promising them a greater say in government appointments and development initiatives.
Ruto sought to undermine Mr. Musyoka’s political influence in the area by speaking at roadside rallies on Friday and an interdenominational church gathering on Sunday. He did this by portraying the former vice president as an insensitive politician who had turned down offers of important positions in the government in order to join the opposition.
Putting local politics aside, the danger of significant economic disruptions along East Africa’s most vital transit corridor is another reason why protests in the area could spread to urban centers.
Between Nairobi and the coastal county of Taita Taveta, the boundaries of Machakos and Makueni, two of the region’s three counties, span more than 200 kilometers.
If the President was successful in quelling the surging opposition tide during his weekend tour, only time will tell.
But he will be going in other directions as well to put out the political fires that his competitors have started.
In what was perceived as the opposition leader bringing the fight directly to the President, Mr. Odinga and his allies disobeyed a police order on Thursday to speak at a town hall-style assembly in Murang’a County in central Kenya.